The winds are starting to get gusty. The lightning strikes currently appear to be well west of Florence. The low pressure area that is setting records is now west of northern Washington. In Tillamook County we have seen a few downed trees that have cause a few power outages, but things are relative quiet so far.
They (the National Weather Service) are expecting the activity to increase later this evening and tonight as additional rainbands rotate through the area as the low continues to track northeastward. So, by 7:00 pm tonight we can expect more showers with possible thunderstorms, and some of the showers could be heavy and produce small hail. We will see the breezy southerly winds continue, 20-25 gusting to 45 in town, possibly 55-65 at the beaches.
There is a High Wind Warning for the area until 9:00 am tomorrow and a Coastal Flood Warning from 8:00pm tonight thru 5:00 am Tuesday. The Coastal Flood Warning is a result of a combination of the high seas producing large breaker waves, add that the high tides are running nearly 2’ above predictions, and you can see that runup on the beaches, especially during high tide periods, will be quite high. There could even be some minor Tidal Overflow Flooding in the usual areas tonight and tomorrow.
Tomorrow we will still be influenced by the low pressure area moving into the Vancouver Island area so more rainshowers and possible thunderstorms, still windy, maybe not quite as windy as tonight, and it will be slowly subsiding, especially by tomorrow night.
Wednesday on the weather appears to remain on the active side. By Wednesday there could be an Atmospheric River setting up, somewhere in the Pacific Northwest but there are some models that say a ridge of high pressure will moderate this. It looks like after that we see more rain, off and on, as more systems move thru the rest of the week.
Previous October 23 report:
The calm before the storm! The low pressure area we have been talking about the last few days, that is still well off to the west, is continuing to deepen or get stronger. The low is expected to continue to be pushed eastward by the very strong jet stream winds this morning. Right now, things are not so bad, winds at the airport at southeasterly 8-12 gusting to 25 and winds at the beaches are not that significant now either. A look at the radar shows rain pouring into northern California and some into Washington and we have some scattered light to moderate rain into our area as well.
This afternoon we can expect a transition to scattered showers, some of these could be heavy and thunderstorms are also possible. Winds should increase this afternoon to 15-20 gusting to 35 inland and 40-50 at the beaches. A High Winds Warning has been issued and valid until 9am Monday. There is also a slight chance that, with all this wind, and the possible wind shear, funnel clouds could develop over the coast waters. As seen in Manzanita in 2016, it is possible that stronger funnel clouds could come ashore and then we have a tornado as it move over land. Coastal location should stay alert and monitor the weather. A NOAA Weather Radio is an excellent tool for notification of any warnings!
The activity continues tonight, continued rainshowers, possibly heavy with thunderstorms, but then transiting back to rain in the early morning hours, winds overnight increasing to 20-30 gusting to 45 inland, possible 35-45 gusting to 65 at the beaches. There is still the risk of funnels clouds also.
All this activity will cause some dangerously high surf with 25-35” swells possible later tonight and there is a very high risk of sneaker waves. Throw in high tide with some higher anomalies, already running about a foot and a half higher than normal, and this would explain the Coastal Flood Warning that has been issued starting at 8pm tonight thru Tuesday at 5am. Risk Levels along the beaches is very high for the next couple days.
As far as flooding potential, it still looks like 2-3” of rain is possible today thru tomorrow with the higher amounts in the Coast Range. There is a chance of some brief small stream and urban flooding as a result of the brief heavy downpours but river flooding concerns remain low. Remember, many trees will be losing their leaves with the increased wind and these could block drains and colverts.
Things start to wind down Tuesday, still on the rainy side and somewhat breezy at times though for the rest of the week.